Inventory Shortage Impacts New Hampshire Housing Affordability

Inventory Shortage Impacts New Hampshire Housing Affordability

Real estate prices have continued to accelerate in New Hampshire after we saw a historic median price of $500,000 for a single-family home in the Granite State back in March. We witnessed the price jump higher again in April to $515,000. Fast-forward to June 30th, where the median sales price for a single-family home just hit a record number of $538,000 for June 2024, according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors®, representing a 7.8% increase over the previous year.

For condominium homes statewide, the median sales prices amounted to $412,450 in June 2024, a 3.1% increase. Prices continued to climb even though the one-year change in single-family closed sales decreased by 13.5%.

It’s interesting to note that days on the market increased 5.3% for single-family homes; however, days on the market for condominiums decreased 27.6%. Fortunately, the supply of single-family home inventory for sale increased from 1,659 homes for sale in June of 2023 compared to 2,152 homes for sale in June of 2024, a 29.7% increase. This increase in inventory brings New Hampshire’s monthly supply of inventory from a 1.6-month supply as of June 2023 to a 2.2-month supply as of June 2024, resulting in a 37.5% increase in inventory.

So far, year-to-date, New Hampshire has been performing very well where single-family homes have been selling at 101.3% over the listing price on average, and condos have been selling at 101.2% over the listing price. Unfortunately, New Hampshire’s affordability index is still at record lows of 59% for single-family homes and 73% for condos…not a good statistic.

It’s the limited amount of inventory that’s contributing to the record-high selling prices in New Hampshire. Even though the single-family home inventory has increased from 1,300 homes at the beginning of May to 2,152 at the end of June, these figures look weak when you compare them to over 10,000 back in May of 2015. The lack of inventory is the biggest factor affecting values even though we are seeing the number of homes increase.

So far this year to date, in Belknap County, individual single-family home sales are down 14.9% in units compared to the previous year, and the median sales price is up 10.6% for the same period.

In Carroll County, single-family home sales were down 4.7% in units, and the median sales price was down 0.5%, according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors®.

Looking at our local market, I pulled up some recent figures from our MLS system for 8 towns in the Lakes Region for single-family homes and condominiums. The following will show you what’s presently available for sale, and the numbers are staggering:

For single-family homes, Alton has 22 listed homes with prices ranging from a low of $438,000 to a high of $3,299,000, with an average price of $1,163,868 and a median price of $622,450. Belmont has 21 listed homes, with prices between $299,000 and $2,000,000, an average price of $737,904, and a median price of $645,000. Gilford has 30 listed homes with a low of $230,000, a high of $4,500,000, an average of $1,230,729, and a median of $951,200. Franklin also has 10 listed homes, with prices from $175,000 to $799,000, averaging $516,470 and a median of $523,450. Laconia has 31 listed homes as well, with prices ranging from $315,000 to $2,995,000, an average of $1,088,490, and a median of $950,000. Meredith has 25 listed homes, with a low price of $449,000, a high of $3,500,000, an average price of $1,320,288, and a median price of $895,000. Tilton has 3 listed homes with prices between $619,900 and $899,000, averaging $736,266, and a median of $689,900. Wolfeboro has 22 listed homes with prices ranging from $304,900 to $10,950,000, an average of $2,625,700, and a median of $924,900.

For condos, there are no listed condos in Alton and Franklin. Belmont has 3 listed condos with prices ranging from $134,900 to $299,000, an average of $227,966, and a median of $249,999. Gilford has 12 listed condos with prices between $135,000 and $874,999, an average of $431,983, and a median of $514,999. Laconia has 69 listed condos with prices ranging from $160,000 to $1,450,000, averaging $539,052 and a median of $454,900. Meredith has 7 listed condos with a low price of $279,000, a high of $650,000, an average price of $529,814, and a median price of $599,900. Tilton has 4 listed condos with prices between $250,000 and $749,000, an average of $439,700, and a median of $379,900. Wolfeboro has 1 listed condo with a price of $959,900.

You can see from the above the resale prices in the 8 towns and cities listed above have risen to epic levels. Certainly, the average and median sales prices are higher because waterfront listings are included. However there are many residential non-waterfront listings that have accelerated in their pricing as well.

Housing is the top issue for residents of New Hampshire as a new survey from UNH recently disclosed the majority of responders in June identified housing as the most important problem facing New Hampshire. The Granite State simply does not have enough housing stock to meet demand which has sent our prices on an upward trajectory. My gut feeling, however, is that the market has peaked in some categories as we are seeing recent price reductions. The market accelerated rapidly over the past 16 years which is a long stretch without a correction. The big question is, is it sustainable? There certainly are some speed bumps out there that can disrupt the markets…only time will tell.

This article was written by Frank Roche. Frank is president of Roche Realty Group in Meredith, NH, and can be reached at (603) 279-7046. Data was compiled by a NEREN  search on 07/12/2024 and is subject to change. Please feel free to visit www.rocherealty.com to learn more about the Lakes Region and its real estate market.

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