New Hampshire’s housing market has been hitting the national airwaves and the Granite State has been picking up recognition when you compare it to other parts of the country.
Here are a few stats that I’ve churned up to provide you with better insight on what’s going on:
- New Hampshire led the country in the last five years in the percentage of homes that sold above the asking price. During that period, 57.8% of the properties sold were above the asking price, nearly double the national average of 29.7%, according to data that Agent Advice used from Zillow.com.
- New Hampshire has the second highest spike in median home prices in the nation at 76.4% over the last five years, according to research by Protool Reviews. It’s interesting to note that our neighbor, the state of Maine has the highest increase in median home prices in the country during the same period.
- Prices also climbed in nine of New Hampshire’s ten counties, with 503 more homes for sale statewide in August than a year ago.
- New Hampshire takes the crown as “the most desirable state for Real Estate Brokers,” as per a recent study conducted by Real Estate Experts Agent Advice.
- Realtor.com just announced that Manchester, New Hampshire, was ranked as the country’s #1 hottest housing market in August. What’s amazing is that it is the 29th time in the data’s history that the Manchester Metro has received the top spot on the lengthy list. The Manchester area has been among the top three markets in the country each month for more than three years. It was just reported the median home price in Manchester was $550,000. I grew up in Manchester, and it’s hard to believe that the market is the hottest in the entire country. The proximity to the Boston market, where the median price is $834,500, is a major drawing card. The report indicates Manchester’s listings received 3.3 times more views in August than the national average. The competition in the Queen City is pretty dynamic, with not a lot of inventory and a high demand for housing.
- I pulled up the number of single-family homes currently for sale in New Hampshire as of 9/12/2024, and there are 2,146. Even though the number has increased since this spring, it’s still almost 10,000 fewer homes than were on the market in September 2014. For condos, there are presently 673 for sale statewide.
- I pulled up the 25 towns and cities comprising the Lakes Region as of 9/12/2024, and there are 440 single-family homes and 103 condos for sale. The median listing price for single-family homes in the region is $650,000, and the median days on the market are 48.
There were 103 condos for sale in the Lakes Region, with a median listing price of $509,900 and median days on the market of 84.
- If you look at national trends, nationwide active listings were up 36% in August compared with the same month last year, according to Realtor.com. It appears the increase in inventory was due to the fact that homes are sitting on the market longer while supply is increasing in most cities, some are seeing huge gains…Tampa, Florida, is up 90% compared to a year ago; San Diego, California, is up 80%; Miami, Florida, is up 72%; Seattle, Washington, is up 69%; and Denver, Colorado, is up 68%. What a huge difference from New Hampshire and the Lakes Region! For the cities above, more supply and longer selling times are finally translating into lower prices.
- It seems that everyone in our industry is hyper-focused on the Fed meeting on September 18th. The fed has telegraphed that it will cut rates for the first time since 2020. However, the widely anticipated Fed rate cut has already ushered in lower rates. But, it seems that some buyers and sellers are waiting for additional declines. Who knows, the Fed’s next move could be incremental and, therefore, only have a modest effect on the housing market. When the Fed started cranking rates upward to battle inflation, they spiked all the way to 8% in October 2023. As a result, the market shifted and slowed down. Think about it: why would you swap out a 3% mortgage for one at 7.5%-8%? The current 30-year fixed rate mortgage national average is around 6.31%, according to Bankrate, so it will be interesting to see how the needle moves after September 18th.
- The best advice for buyers this fall would be to stay the course. Keep studying the market and keep your eyes open for new listings and price reductions. The key is finding the right property to fulfill most of your needs, with the understanding that there will be tradeoffs and that some wants might need to be eliminated. The reason to buy now is that home prices could keep rising a little more if interest rates continue to fall. It could coax a rush of new buyers into the market, thereby boosting competition for a limited supply of homes for sale. In the Lakes Region, with our second home market, we see many cash sales, so that market segment should continue because of the strong market for vacation properties.
Homebuyers should proceed with their existing plans and not try to time the market around an expected rate drop because there are no guarantees.
Also, if rates do drop considerably over time, you can always refinance.
I’ve been in the business for 48 years and I’ve never seen 2.5% to 3% rates like we saw in 2020. You have to be careful and try not to focus on how low the rates were back then. It can get in the way of opportunity if a good deal comes up. At the same time, I can remember back in 1981 when I was quoting potential buyers a variable interest rate of 17%-18% with a five-year cap over the life of the loan to purchase a Broadview Condominium in Gilford. I used to kid around and say do you want to put it on Visa or MasterCard. Those were crazy times.
However, the Broadview Condominium prices were only $117,000 to $123,000 at that time. Those who bought then with the high interest rates made out fine when they refinanced later when the interest rates dropped. If you purchased back then at $117,000 that same Broadview Condominium would sell at $825,000 today. That’s why over the years, as I’ve watched prices climb, I’ve said, “should have, could have, would have.” Real estate certainly has appreciated over the years, and over the past four years, prices have accelerated like rocket fuel.
The main driver of record home prices is a one-two punch straight from my economics class at Stonehill College… A lack of housing supply coupled with strong demand.
This article was written by Frank Roche. Frank is president of Roche Realty Group in Meredith, NH, and can be reached at/ (603) 279-7046. Data was compiled by a NEREN search on 09/12/2024 and is subject to change. Please feel free to visit www.rocherealty.com to learn more about the Lakes Region and its real estate market.
